 Miami Heat 2009/2010 |
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posté par Anonyme : | Preview ESPN Hollinger
The Heat were a one-man band last season, but help might be on the horizon.
Offseason Moves
The Heat plucked some useful assets from the O'Neal trade -- a starting center, for one, but also a future first-round pick and a taker for Banks' dead-weight contract. That said, the decision could prove hugely costly. The Heat find themselves pinned over the luxury tax threshold thanks to O'Neal's $23 million obligation, which is even more than the $20 million owed to another O'Neal, Shaquille, whom the Heat were so delirious to be rid of in early 2009. Miami essentially undid that trade with the latter O'Neal deal, even sending out the same two players -- Marion and Banks -- it had acquired in the first one.
As a consequence of taking on Jermaine O'Neal's contract, Miami didn't make a single meaningful foray into free agency. Plus, the Heat will likely shed a contract at some point this season to get back under the tax line. If not for the trade, they would have had several million dollars in cap space available.
This has enormous big-picture importance because of the implications for Dwyane Wade's upcoming free agency in 2010. If the Heat can't provide him with a better supporting cast, he may be more inclined to take a flier on another club -- most notably the Bulls, who play in his hometown of Chicago. Comments he made over the summer indicated a frustration with the lack of improvement, creating even greater speculation about his future address.
Of course, the Heat have a few trump cards of their own. Since O'Neal's contract expires after the season, along with several others, Miami will be so far under the salary cap that it could sign two stars to near max-level contracts. By combining two such players with Wade, Chalmers and Beasley, the Heat would be fearsome even if seven D-League castoffs filled out the roster. That's an impressive carrot to dangle in front of Wade to lure him to stay, and one still suspects he'll remain in South Beach when it's all said and done.
In the meantime, Miami's offseason produced another crucial situation: Michael Beasley's trip to rehab. While the second-year forward showed limitless offensive potential, his maturity and professionalism remain major question marks going forward.
As for personnel moves, it was mostly crickets:
Traded Mark Blount for Quentin Richardson.
The Heat took on about $1.4 million in salary in this one, which is a big deal considering their luxury tax situation. Richardson appeared finished in New York last season, but the Heat were desperate for help in the wings and it doesn't hurt that he's a close friend of Wade's from Chicago. Realistically, however, Miami probably would have been better off using the money to sign a younger player for just over the league minimum. It would have saved the team a few bucks too.
Drafted Patrick Beverley and Robert Dozier.
Miami used two second-round picks to sign players who went to Europe in Beverley and Dozier. A third second-rounder went to New Orleans in a deal that brought back two future second-rounders -- a pretty nice coup that amounts to a buy one, get one free deal.
Re-signed Jamaal Magloire to a one-year deal for the minimum.
Magloire's size proved useful in matchups against big centers and he came cheaply, so this was a logical move for the Heat to fill out their roster.
Declined to match Jamario Moon's offer sheet.
This was where the rubber met the road as far as the Heat's plans this season. They declined to match a fairly reasonable three-year, $9 million offer sheet from Cleveland for Moon because it would have ended up costing them roughly double that amount in luxury tax and foregone distributions this season. The result leaves them even shorter on wing talent than they were last season.
Biggest Strength: Defense
Despite the presence of the league's leading scorer in Wade, Miami's primary identity is as a disruptive defensive team. Wade is a huge part of the story at that end as well, taking much better gambles than in 2007-08 and, shockingly, ranking in the top 10 in blocked shots for much of last season despite standing only 6-4.
But he's not the only contributor. Chalmers is just as good a ball hawk and, at 6-3, has the size to guard bigger players when needed. O'Neal is a spent force as a post player but remains one of the league's most underrated defenders -- he locks down opposing post players, takes charges by the bushel and remains a decent shot-blocker. Power forward Udonis Haslem is another strong defensive player who willingly does all the dirty work inside, while James Jones -- who missed half of last season with a wrist injury -- does solid work at the small forward spot.
Biggest Weakness: Offensive Depth
Much as it did in the playoffs a season ago, Miami may struggle to score despite Wade's excellence because it has only two players who can create their own offense. One of them, Beasley, is still something of a question mark for other reasons.
After that, the next-best weapon is Jones, but he's strictly a catch-and-shoot 3-point ace who is out there to space the floor for Wade. The same goes for Daequan Cook, Chris Quinn, Haslem and Richardson, leaving -- shudder -- O'Neal as the third option. He relishes the opportunity to score in the post but has been phenomenally ineffective at converting the past two seasons, frustrating fans and coaches alike by settling for contested midrange jumpers rather than attacking the basket.
As a result, it's possible the Heat could have the league's leading scorer and still finish 20th or so in offensive efficiency. Chances are they won't be quite that bad, owing to a second-year improvement from Beasley, but for a team with a player of Wade's skill this scenario should be impossible.
Outlook
If Wade played at an MVP level, stayed on the floor for 79 games, and the Heat won only 43 games last season, then one has to wonder what will happen this season if his numbers revert to something a bit more human. In particular, Miami must be concerned about all the banging he takes on his forays to the hoop. Even if Wade plays 70 games instead of 79 it will have a huge effect, because the Heat have such a lousy supporting cast that they could easily go 1-11 or 2-10 in the games he misses.
Beasley should be better than a season ago, and the Heat should also get a boost from having Jones around for more than 40 games. On the other hand, O'Neal's injury proneness likely will knock him out for 15 to 20 contests, and the Heat look scary bad in the backcourt with Chris Quinn and Daequan Cook as the two primary backups.
Add it all up and Wade should be able to squeeze Miami back into the postseason as long as he stays healthy. That's the ceiling -- it's tough to see a one-man band getting any further, no matter how talented that man may be. Whether such a season would be enough to convince Wade to come back with more help in 2010 is a question only he can answer.
Prediction: 40-42, fourth in SE Division, seventh in Eastern Conference.
50 Joel Anthony
8 Carlos Arroyo
30 Michael Beasley
6 Mario Chalmers
14 Daequan Cook
9 Yakhouba Diawara
40 Udonis Haslem
22 James Jones
15 John Lucas III
21 Jamaal Magloire
7 Jermaine O'Neal
11 Chris Quinn
42 Shavlik Randolph
5 Quentin Richardson
43 Anthony Tolliver
3 Dwyane Wade
1 Dorell Wright
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