 Orlando Magic 2009/2010 |
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posté par Anonyme : | Preview ESPN Hollinger
Here's why the East champs might be better but still might get bounced in 2009-10.
Offseason Moves
The Magic got a taste of the Finals, and it appeared to make their front office quite thirsty. Despite playing in a small market and in one of the league's most dated arenas (the replacement won't be ready for another year), the Magic decided to damn the torpedoes and load up on talent this summer. If you're a Magic fan, you have tip your hat to the DeVos family ownership for their willingness to spend (read: lose) money in the quest for a title. The Magic will pay about $10 million in luxury tax, or potentially more if they use Hedo Turkoglu's trade exception.
Traded Courtney Lee, Tony Battie and Rafer Alston to New Jersey for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson.
New Jersey's pain became Orlando's gain, as the Magic traded three spare parts to the Nets to obtain Carter, an Orlando native. His long-range shooting skill fits with Orlando's general offensive strategy, and he can run pick-and-rolls well enough to take over Turkoglu's spot as an offensive orchestrator. Anderson is no slouch either and could find a role off the bench as a floor-spacing four for the Magic.
Signed and traded Hedo Turkoglu to Toronto for cash and a trade exception.
Turkoglu had already agreed to a deal with Toronto, so it was surprising at the time to see the Magic help out the Raptors by making it a sign-and-trade. It was a complicated four-team deal and Orlando received cash from both Toronto and Dallas for taking part, but that seemed unimportant until Orlando's offseason spending strategy came to light. The primary benefit for the Magic is a trade exception worth $9 million that they can use any time until July 2010. It will end up costing them $18 million to exercise once they factor in luxury tax costs, but they very well may use the exception if it can usher in another star.
Signed Brandon Bass to a four-year, $18 million deal.
This was a heck of a deal for Orlando, because they now have a high-scoring young frontcourt player to fill Battie's spot in the rotation. Bass will likely play much more than his predecessor did, and his arrival allows Rashard Lewis to shift to the 3 on occasion, which mutes some of the effect of losing Turkoglu.
Matched Dallas' 5-year, $34 million offer sheet for Marcin Gortat.
This was a spectacular poker play by Magic GM Otis Smith, who convinced the Mavs to let him sign away Bass under the presumption that the tax-paying Magic couldn't possibly add him and still match the Mavs' offer sheet for Gortat. Instead Smith duped them and snagged both players while preserving the asset for a future trade. Granted, barring an injury to Howard, Gortat is likely to play little for the Magic this year.
The stipulations on matching a restricted free agent's offer sheet are tricky. The Magic can't trade him to Dallas for a full year, can't trade him anywhere until Dec. 15, and can't trade him without his consent. Nonetheless, many suspect a trade will come sooner or later. Gortat would be more than happy to relocate to a situation where he'd start, and the Magic can convert him into more urgently needed assets. In the meantime, they have one of the league's best backup centers locked up for half a decade.
Signed Jason Williams to a one-year deal for the minimum.
Alston's departure left veteran retread Anthony Johnson as the only other point guard on the roster, and while the Magic may occasionally line up without a point guard (much as they did in the playoffs a year ago), the Magic still need more insurance. Enter Williams, who sat out last season but was productive, if not very healthy, in his two previous seasons in Miami.
Signed Matt Barnes to a two-year deal for $3.2 million.
Orlando used the leftover midlevel exception money from the Bass deal to ink Barnes, who provides yet another floor-spacer who can play both the 3 and the 4. Barnes isn't good enough to start for a playoff team, but he is tough, plays with energy and handles the ball well for his size. As a 10-minute energizer off the bench, he should provide good value at this price.
Signed Adonal Foyle to a one-year deal for the minimum.
This was strictly an insurance move for the frontcourt, bringing back a player familiar with the system and well-liked in the locker room. Foyle is unlikely to play, or even dress, unless injuries ravage the frontcourt.
Biggest Strength: Defense
I can't emphasize this enough -- everybody focuses on the 3-pointers, but that's a distraction. Orlando wins because it defends, and this year it should again rank among the league's top defensive units.
However, Orlando may struggle to keep its perch at No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Howard remains the linchpin, but the trade of Lee, Alston and Battie to New Jersey removed three of the team's best defensive players. The replacements at those spots -- Barnes, Bass and Williams -- are much more offensive-minded and will be hard-pressed to match their predecessors' contributions.
The hope is that Orlando can offset the losses in other ways. Carter, though he takes many barbs, is certainly a better defensive player than Turkoglu, while the increased playing time for Pietrus could provide another boost at the defensive end. Additionally, J.J. Redick has vastly improved as a defender -- as he showed when shadowing Ray Allen in the second round of the playoffs -- and could prove more useful on that end this year.
That said, the biggest variable may be this one: How will they respond to another year under the hard-charging Van Gundy? He squeezed the maximum out of this unit's potential a year ago, but the unanswered question is how long they'll respond to his prodding before the message grows stale.
Biggest Weakness: One-On-One Scoring
Look, we have to choose something. The Magic start four All-Stars, play airtight defense and go 12 deep, so we're talking about fairly small chinks in the armor here. But against opponents with the size to play Howard straight up, this weakness becomes more apparent, as it did during last year's Finals.
Orlando didn't have a great one-on-one scorer a year ago, forcing them into pick-and-rolls with Hedo Turkoglu that often didn't yield much in the way of open looks. This year the prospects are better with Nelson back from injury and Carter replacing Turkoglu, but each comes with an asterisk. Nelson is coming off a shoulder injury and had put up numbers that vastly exceeded his career norms. Carter, meanwhile, turns 33 in January, and although he played very well a year ago, he has a history of knee trouble and there's no guarantee how long he can keep playing at this level.
Outlook
Surprisingly, the Magic have managed to stay under the national radar despite making the Finals a year ago and loading up the truck with talent over the summer. It's partly a perception issue -- Turkoglu became a "name" player with the Magic's run to the Finals last year, while Carter has been largely forgotten about in New Jersey and has been criticized much of his career for underachieving.
But there's no comparison between the two players: Carter creates more shots with the same shooting accuracy, defends better, and -- despite the renown for Turkoglu's passing skill -- also achieved a higher Pure Point Rating. He's just a much better player.
The Magic also are much deeper in the frontcourt with Bass, Barnes and Anderson, and should be better in the backcourt with a full year of Nelson and the addition of Williams. Additionally, they have assets left in reserve in the form of a $9 million trade exception and the potentially tradable Gortat contract. Using either of those to bring in a marquee player at the trade deadline could swing the balance toward a championship.
All of the above make the Magic a formidable player in the East. But it doesn't necessarily mean they repeat as conference champions. A lot of things had to happen for them to win a year ago, and it helped that Cleveland was more focused on matching up against Boston than against Howard --otherwise Shaquille O'Neal probably would have been a Cavalier in last year's conference finals.
Shaq will be in a Cleveland uniform this time around, however, and that could change the dynamic of a Magic-Cavs matchup considerably. All told, the Magic are one of three teams I'd put at the top of the list as far as championship favorites, but it's very possible they end up with a better regular season and a worse playoff outcome than a year ago.
Prediction: 62-20, 1st in Southeast Division, 2nd in Eastern Conference.
2 Moris Almond
33 Ryan Anderson
22 Matt Barnes
30 Brandon Bass
15 Vince Carter
31 Adonal Foyle
13 Marcin Gortat
12 Dwight Howard C
43 Linton Johnson III
8 Anthony Johnson
9 Rashard Lewis
14 Jameer Nelson
20 Mickael Pietrus
7 J.J. Redick
44 Jason Williams
En rouge : nouveaux arrivants (transferts, draft, signatures...)
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