 Denver Nuggets 2009-2010 |
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posté par Anonyme : | Preview ESPN Hollinger
Can the Nuggets be the league's most surprising team two years running ? That depends.
Offseason Moves
Denver's salary situation isn't getting any better, as the ills of the Kenyon Martin contract in particular have left them scrambling to reorganize the balance sheet. The Nuggets will almost certainly pay luxury tax this year but strained desperately to try to minimize the bill, staying out of the free-agent market except to ink their own free agents or sign minimum deals.
This is contrary to the behavior of most of the other contenders, who spent the offseason stocking up their arsenals while the Nuggets stood by idly. Part of the logic is that their situation gets much worse a year from now. Denver's starting five alone could be a luxury-tax team a year from now -- Billups, Smith, Anthony, Nene and Martin will combine to make $64 million, possibly exceeding the projected tax line -- so the Nuggets could be looking at two straight years of writing big checks to the league.
All of this leads one to wonder if management will start shedding salary if the Nuggets get off to a disappointing start. Unlike the L.A.s and Bostons of the world, Denver doesn't have the revenues to compensate for paying the tax -- it's strictly a favor from owner Stan Kroenke. As long as the Nuggets keep winning, however, expect them to stay in the tax the next two seasons.
Traded a future first-round pick to Minnesota for the rights to Ty Lawson.
This was an astute move to fill the backup point guard spot with one of the most undervalued commodities in the draft. Lawson's output at North Carolina was phenomenal and I was shocked he fell all the way to 18th. In nabbing Lawson, the Nuggets get a successor to Billups and an immediate replacement for Anthony Carter.
Let Dahntay Jones go, traded a future second-round pick to Detroit for Arron Afflalo, Walter Sharpe and cash.
The Afflalo trade was basically a salary dump by the Pistons that allowed the Nuggets to replace Jones (who got a ridiculous contract from Indiana) with a younger defensive stopper who shoots better. Afflalo isn't of Jones' caliber athletically, but he should easily replace his production and space the floor better because of his superior long-range shooting.
Traded Sonny Weems and Walter Sharpe to Milwaukee for Malik Allen.
This was a cap-neutral deal that netted the Nuggets another big man, something they'll likely need since neither Nene, Martin nor Andersen has an outstanding track record of health. Allen is a replacement-level talent, but he's also paid like one.
Let Linas Kleiza go.
This was a straight money issue for the Nuggets, who didn't have the ducats to fairly compensate Kleiza -- a fairly potent offensive player -- to play only 10 minutes a night behind Anthony. The good news is that he signed in Europe, so the Nuggets retain his rights as a restricted free agent and could very well re-sign him in two years when they don't have tax concerns.
Re-signed Anthony Carter and Johan Petro to one-year deals for the minimum.
Denver filled out the roster by bringing back two vets at point guard and center. Carter is a bit of a security blanket for George Karl and tends to be in games when he shouldn't be (most notably, to throw away an inbounds pass at the end of Game 1 of the conference finals against the Lakers), but he's also an inexpensive fifth guard. Petro is a 7-footer who has disappointed with his lack of development but is only 23. His size could come in handy against the big centers who trouble Nene and Andersen.
Traded the rights to Axel Hervelle to Houston for James White.
Hervelle is a long-forgotten Belgian forward drafted in 2005, but the Nuggets parlayed him into White when the Rockets found themselves with more players than roster spots. White was arguably the best player in the D-League a year ago and solves the Nuggets' need for another athletic wing player, so this was a solid pickup for Denver's second unit.
Biggest Strength: Starting five
Now that J.R. Smith will be promoted to the starting lineup, Denver's first quintet stacks up with any in basketball. Anthony comes off a poor year by his standards but has the highest ceiling of the bunch, and it's his ability to draw double-teams and find the open man (something he did with increasing enthusiasm as last season wore on) that can make the game easier for the Nuggets' role players.
Billups gets second billing on the marquee because of his ability to direct the game and get to the line while committing remarkably few turnovers, but Smith is nearly as dangerous a threat. A devastating long-range shooter who is still figuring things out at 24, he's shot 40 percent on 3s the past two seasons and will do better if he can overcome a pattern of slow starts to his seasons.
Up front, Nene and Martin complement the starters with finishing ability in the paint and speed in transition. Each can hit a face-up jumper, as well, helping spread the floor and create lanes for the others.
Interestingly, this five-man unit played only 163 minutes together last season, according to 82games.com, but in that time had a plus-63 scoring margin -- an advantage of nearly 19 points per game. While we can expect some regression to the mean in a larger sample of minutes this season, the Nuggets may enjoy some dominating first and third quarters with this group.
Biggest Weakness: Wing depth
Smith and Anthony make up a powerful scoring combo on the wings, but what happens when Denver digs into its bench or wants to go small with Anthony at the 4? Last year they had an answer to both questions in the form of Kleiza, but this year it's unclear where the points will come from.
Afflalo is an underrated defender and can make open shots, but he provides little in the way of creativity or athleticism. White, a D-League veteran who has yet to establish himself in the NBA, showed great promise last season but is at best an unknown quantity. The only other candidate on the roster is Renaldo Balkman, who is more of a 4 than a 3 because he can't shoot to save his life. The Nuggets may sign another player between now and the start of the season, but given that they're dealing with the remnants of the free-agent scrap heap, don't hold your breath waiting for a great solution.
Outlook
A lot of things went right for the Nuggets last year, and we shouldn't necessarily expect that good fortune to repeat itself. To wit, an injury-prone frontcourt was reasonably healthy, their competitors in the West had setbacks and they were fortunate to finish seeded ahead of the Blazers, Rockets and Spurs despite an inferior scoring margin.
Additionally, the Nuggets' financial limitations prevent them from making some of the over-the-top moves we've seen from other contenders. While Denver still sits on a pair of huge trade exceptions from its cost-cutting moves of a year ago, it seems unlikely to utilize those assets and increase its luxury-tax bill.
That said, Denver has a couple of big items pointing in its favor. First of all, Anthony is likely to put up far better regular-season numbers than he did a year ago, as the elbow that plagued him for much of last season seems healed. Second, they'll have Billups for a full training camp this time around instead of trying to incorporate him during the first week of the season. And third, the addition of Lawson and promotion of Smith means that Denver can replace 3,200 minutes that went to two marginal players, Carter and Jones, a year ago with more productive talents.
Sum up those pros and cons and the Nuggets are right back where they started. Denver had the scoring margin of a 52-win team a year ago and that seems a fair prediction for where they'll end up again this year. Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely such performance will again yield a No. 2 seed in the West.
Prediction: 52-30, 2nd in Northwest Division, 4th in Western Conference.
6 Arron Afflalo
30 Malik Allen
11 Chris Andersen
15 Carmelo Anthony
32 Renaldo Balkman
1 Chauncey Billups
50 Keith Brumbaugh
25 Anthony Carter
10 Dontaye Draper
14 Joey Graham
3 Ty Lawson
52 Kurt Looby
4 Kenyon Martin
31 Nenê
27 Johan Petro
5 J.R. Smith
21 James White
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